Toxic Trade Off – Pakistan’s Pollution Crisis and the Paradox of Development

Abstract

This paper investigates in respect to environmental damage in Pakistan from 1972 to 2023 the interactions among industrialization, population increase, energy consumption, car registration. Using strict econometric approaches including unit root tests to evaluate stationarity, the Johansen Co-integration test to identify long- and short-run relationships, and the VAR lag order selection criterion for lag determination, the study analyzes these dynamics using ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and ECM (Error , Correction Model). Using Log Likelihood, Akaike Information Criteria, and Schwarz Criteria helps one enhance model definition and lag interval options. The paper investigates the complex and bidirectional interactions among economic growth, energy consumption, and environmental damage, stressing that higher energy use and industrial activity greatly aggravate environmental damage including pollution and deforestation, so aggravating rising population and energy demands. Results expose a long-term favorable relationship between environmental damage and energy usage. The outcomes underline the need of deliberate interventions to balance environmental preservation with economic development by means of the encouragement of sustainable behaviors and cleaner energy sources. This thorough study emphasizes how urgently wise policy-making is needed to handle Pakistan's several environmental problems.